Director of haitong securities and futures research institute believes that in the past 18 years, the stock market and commodities have formed a three-round rule of "commodity first and stock market later", but the divergence between the two markets is still intensifying. While commodities have been strong for the past two years, the corresponding sectors of the stock market have been weak. Data statistics show that on January 1, 2016, solstice, August 16, 2018, rebar steel futures rose 125%, steel index rose 25%; In the same period, copper futures rose 25%, shen wan copper plate down 10%; Over the same period, aluminum futures rose 50 percent and shenwan aluminum fell 30 percent.

       According to the 2017 annual report, in terms of the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company shareholders, according to the shenwan industry classification, the growth rate of steel 396%, non-ferrous metal 138%, copper and aluminum 69%, 68%, lead and zinc 447%, building materials 76%. Given the price mechanism, the transmission of higher commodity prices from upstream to downstream remains a highly probable event. The cycle plate corresponding to the stock market, such as Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum, rebar and the corresponding plate of listed companies, the trend has a greater deviation. Therefore, this divergence may increase the allocation of institutions to corresponding sectors in the future.

       For the recent divergence between the commodity market and the stock market, the relevant people also said that the correlation between the commodity and the stock market is not very stable positive correlation. The simple logic is that all the commodities that are currently rising are raw materials, with a clear squeeze on downstream profits. Currently, due to the impact of environmental protection, orders flow to large enterprises, and the profit performance of scale enterprises is better than small and medium-sized enterprises. Under such circumstances, the upstream exploits the profits of the downstream, while the large enterprises exploit the profits of the small and medium-sized enterprises. There are structural problems in the distribution of market profits, and this structure is unstable.